Tablets 2.0 – This time think bigger
The tablet has been the device phenomenon of 2010. At the start of the year, it was clear a new breed of portable gadgets was just over the horizon, but many form factors were discussed. Some were evolutions of existing types like netbooks and ereaders; others included ‘smartbooks‘, ‘cloudbooks‘ and slates. As the holiday buying season approached, all these trends had coalesced, for now at least, among one format, the tablet. Cloudbooks, next generation netbooks and as-yet undefined new designs will still come along, but for now the tablet rules the roost, and looks set to be one of the fastest growing consumer device categories ever seen.
The impact of the tablet, and particularly the first major launch, Apple‘s iPad, is seen by the confidence with which we can predict massive growth over the coming two years, when only a tiny number of products are actually commercially available. Already, we have increased our forecasts significantly from those made at the start of the year. Three different trends underpin this confidence:
- The success of the iPad, which will spawn a whole category of similar devices with variations in price point and applications focus
- The extension of the tablet format beyond the iPad into many other functions, which will lead to the proliferation of slates optimized for a single task such as home management, video conferencing or printing.
- The adoption of the tablet as an alternative to the PC in emerging economies where PC penetration is low, and in some vertical industries where the notebook has been a compromise format.
These three drivers will create mass volume but none of them will be dominated by Apple or the iPad lookalikes. Instead, a new supply chain will grow up around low cost devices geared to universal adoption. This will lead to an industry structure far closer to that of cellphones, rather than just smartphones. Volumes will total almost 400m units by 2014, with 75% of those found in the newer markets. These three broad categories will require different user interfaces, routes to market and functionality, and different OEMs and component makers will thrive in each area.
The key ‘hybrid’ devices sit between cellphones and PCs, combining computing, web and communications functions. In 2010, the smartphone is the dominant form factor, but the tablet is already making inroads on the most prominent of the new hybrids, the netbook.
The full report - produced by Rethink & Experton Group - examines these three very different trends, and how they will drive tablet sales, as well as the evolution of the products‘ design in hardware and software. The report also looks at pricing and supply chain developments, and at the impact of the tablet on other device types, notably netbooks, smartphones and the emerging category of ‘cloudbooks‘ (which may or may not prove to be just an offshoot of tablets). Ereaders, which blazed the trail for tablets in some respects, will also be surveyed, though these will increasingly fall into the wider class of tablets optimized for a particular function.
Please click here for more details on the report and ordering information.